Latest poll shows increase for Lula and possibility of first round victory

The former president polled 47% in voting intentions while all other candidates together reach 44%.September 20, 2022 by Brasil de Fato

Presidential candidate for the Workers’ Party (PT) Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva speaks to members of cooperatives at the Armazem do Campo of the MST. Photo: Emilly Firmino

Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party of Brazil (PT) has a real chance of winning the first round of the presidential election. This is what the survey released on Monday September 19 by Ipec (Intelligence in Research and Consulting) shows. Lula’s vote has moved up one percentage point, and he now has 47% of total voting intentions in the “stimulated” survey (wherein the names of the candidates are presented). The sum of the votes for all the other candidates is 44%.

Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party polled at 31%. Ciro Gomes (PDT) received 7% and Simone Tebet (MDB) had 5%. Soraya Thronicke (União Brasil) polled at 1%. The other candidates do not reach 1%. The margin of error is two points higher or lower.

In the previous survey, published last Monday September 12, Lula had 46%, followed by Bolsonaro (31%); Ciro (7%) and Tebet (4%). The others totaled 1% each or less. The sum of the votes of all the opponents, 44%, was lower than the intention to vote for Lula, and the difference was within the margin of error, that is: there was uncertainty about the need or not for a second round.


In the spontaneous poll released on Monday September 19, in which the names of the candidates are not presented, Lula went from 44% last week to 45%. Bolsonaro oscillated downward: from 30% to 29%. Ciro has 5%, against Tebet’s 3%. Also in this survey, Lula is guaranteed victory in the first round.

Ipec also registered Lula’s growth in voting intentions in an eventual second round against the current president. He now has 54%, against 35% for the PL candidate. In last week’s poll, Lula had 53% of voting intentions in the second round, against 36% for Bolsonaro.

This week’s Ipec survey interviewed 3,008 people between September 13 and 19. The margin of error is two percentage points higher or lower and the survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-00073/2022.

Lula grows in FSB/BTG survey

In another survey published on Monday September 19, Lula rose three points above the margin of error and reached 44% of voting intentions in the FSB/BTG survey, compared to a survey by the same institute published a week earlier. Bolsonaro’s intention to vote remained at 35%, while Ciro and Tebet fell two points each, reaching 7% and 5%, respectively. Thronicke had 1%, and the others didn’t score.

The FSB/BTG data indicates the possibility of a second round between the current president and the candidate of the Workers’ Party (PT). In this case, according to the same survey, Lula would win with 52% of the votes, against 39% for Bolsonaro. Each rose one percentage point in comparison with the institute’s survey of the second round of voting the previous week.